October Inventory of Sarasota Homes & Condos
Here is another snapshot of inventory levels in Sarasota. Not a dramatic change either way. I suspected inventories would go up a little since September was a pretty slow month for real estate and many other businesses in Sarasota. I will go out on a limb and say that October will be similar to September in terms of real estate activity and November will be more active. I am seeing more price adjustments from the sellers. It seems they have accepted the fact that prices have dropped and that they will not be able to get the same amount of money their neighbor got a year ago. I also see some of the buyers on the fence getting a little tired of waiting.
October 11th
4,445 single family homes for sale
3,147 condominiums for sale
September 24th
4,458 single family homes for sale
3,078 condominiums for sale
September 9th
4,433 single family homes for sale
3,002 condominiums for sale
August 17th
4,450 single family homes for sale
3,051 condominiums for sale
July 22nd
4,486 single family homes for sale
3,062 condominiums for sale
I searched Sarasota, Lakewood Ranch, Lido Key, Longboat Key, Siesta Key, Bird Key, Casey Key, Nokomis and Osprey for these numbers. MLS data is believed to be accurate but not guaranteed.
posted by Marc Rasmussen at
3:05 PM
6 Comments:
Moody's doesn't see the bottom in Sarasota occurring until the 3rd quarter of 2007.
http://biz.yahoo.com/weekend/weakhome_2.html#table
I was not predicting that we are at the bottom only that the next few months be busier than September.
Here is my post about the Moody's article:
http://www.thesarasotamls.com/sarasota-real-estate-news/2006/10/moodys-expect-sarasota-real-estate.html
Marc,
Go back and look at the posts you made starting in May of this year when I started posting to your site and you'll see that you've been predicting that "the worst is behind us" for quite awhile.
Well, it's now mid October and prices are still falling. Prices have not stabilized in Sarasota, they're falling further than the so-called 'experts' like David Lereah and other local realtors expected/predicted.
You said in May that the condo market should do fairly well, when in fact it has been extremely weak.
WCI Communities is probably the largest condo builder in FL and they're struggling mightily - moreso than many other home builders.
That said, you've been much more realistic than most in your field, and that's commendable.
This downturn in the SW Florida RE market is not over yet, IMO. The other shoe has yet to drop; but it will at some point.
It's time to say it like it is. This isn't fun and it certainly isn't profitable for most people, but it is the situation at hand and we all have to deal with it and make the best of it.
The state govt. could start to improve the problems with RE by extending tax relief to those who own investment properties, cutting property taxes, and forcing insurance companies to either agree to insure homes in the state of Florida while they insure other products, or deny them any insurance business within the state altogether.
RE Investors now shoulder more of the costs of past storm damage and increased insurance costs. When you make it a disincentive to invest in something, people get that idea REAL quick. Money ALWAYS goes where it's treated best, and right now it certainly is not being treated well in SW Florida real estate.
I read in the Herald-tribune recently where one municipality, (I think it was Charlotte County but I could be wrong), opted not to roll back RE property taxes even though property values had declined significantly because they feared this was their last best chance to fill their coffers with taxpayer money.
What an absolute crock of ****. John Doe and Mr. Average Investor looks at that kind of irresponsible action and thinks, "there's no need for me to buy any RE when the laws/taxes are so weighed against me."
When the local, state, and federal legislatures finally get their collective heads out of their ......, maybe things will turn around.
Until then, I wouldn't count on it.
I only mentioned that I thought the worst was behind one time (maybe twice, I cannot remember and don't feel like looking). I have since changed my mind about that. I was wrong. If you go out on a limb and make predictions you will inevitably be wrong.
The prices are falling and may continue to fall. Although, I have noticed that the sellers and Realtors are starting to get it and are pricing homes more realistically. It would be interesting to see if all of the overpriced homes either adjusted their price or were taken off the market to get a real sense of absorption rates.
I am working with some buyers right now that are putting an offer on a house this weekend. Some of the buyers are tired of waiting. Many of them want to buy but fear that they may be able to purchase in 6 months at a lower price.
If are prices are destined to drop I would like to see it happen sooner than later so we can get it over with. Unfortunately, it does not happen this way. Sellers need time to realize what is happening in the market and accept it.
Another problem are the Realtors. I have lost 4 listings in the last 30 days because I was honest about the value of their property. So the sellers decide to list with a differnt agent who will take their listing at an unrealistic price.
There are homes out there for sale that are priced well and make sense. Those are the ones that are selling. There is a price where the buyers feel comfortable buying. When most of the house get to that level will be near bottom.
Marc said:
"It would be interesting to see if all of the overpriced homes either adjusted their price or were taken off the market to get a real sense of absorption rates."
You still appear to be holding out hope that if prices immediately came down to what is considered' current fair market value', that there would be a buyer out there for those homes.
That isn't the case, IMO. Prices have already dropped significantly from the highs and interest rates are still relatively affordable when viewed from a historical perspective, but the inventory of homes on the market is staying stubborningly high.
What this means is that the U.S. consumer is tapped out. They have exhausted every source of borrowing method to use for big ticket items they could imagine.
In order for the absorption rate to accelerate and the number of homes on the market to decline, prices of homes need to drop to levels that are actually BELOW what most people think is fair market value.
The reason for this is due to the higher costs of property taxes, insurance costs, and mortgage expenses.
You're a respected, experienced real estate professional, and even you appear to think prices just need to come down a little bit more to entice buyers.
Imagine what the average house seller thinks needs to happen to get their house sold.
The disparity between what is believed to be the key to selling (slightly lower prices) and the reality of actually selling (significantly lower prices) is still too wide for the current environment.
Lower RE prices remain straight ahead.
"If you go out on a limb and make predictions you will inevitably be wrong."
Not everyone has been wrong in their predictions regarding real estate prices. Those with unbiased positions have been more likely to be correct.
"The prices are falling and may continue to fall. Although, I have noticed that the sellers and Realtors are starting to get it and are pricing homes more realistically."
The houses may be priced more realistically but the real weakness in the economy is just now starting to be recognized by many folks who denied that it was occurring previously.
The point is this, and this is very important: for those who sold and got out either near the top top or as the market was first turning down, they did alright. They might not have sold at the top but they likely made a profit and got out unscathed.
To those people who wanted to sell: who were slow to take action, too stubborn to see the tide turning, slow to see the economy weakening, too greedy to accept what the market was saying, or for whatever reason they did not sell, those folks are now in a pickle.
More people are realizing that weakness in the real estate market is for real, and some are now dropping prices accordingly. But the buyers still are not surfacing to absorb the supply. Things are still not right for the buyers to return in the numbers that are required to balance the market.
The government still has property taxes too high, insurance rates are still unaffordable, mortgage rates are historically at a good level; but in light of the other carrying costs, they don't offset the other costs and factors.
This is what I've been predicting and trumpeting for many months along with a few others. Many have chosen to ignore these warnings and they are now facing the harsh realities of what is still unfolding.
Now that that the weakness is "officially" here and recognized, the real bloodletting will take place, IMO.
Prices for some properties I look at seem fair and reasonable, but they still sit on the market for months. It will get worse before it gets better, IMO.
If you want to sell your property, you now have to be in a better location and have superior amenities than all the competing properties, and you also have to be the lowest or near the lower end of prices of those competing properties.
Reality is here, like it or not.
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