Residential housing will rebound in '08 and '09

Hank Fishkind, Florida's premier economist, spoke at The Lakewood Ranch Country Club Thursday night to several hundred builders, developers, Realtors, mortgage brokers and other members of Southwest Florida's real estate industry. He believes that the downturn in the residential real estate market is over.

"I argue that housing has stopped going down," Fishkind said. "It is weak. It is painful, but it is not going to get any worse."

"Housing starts have fallen below new home closings, which means we are starting to eat into inventory," Fishkind said. "We are at the bottom, but this bottom is going to take a number of months to get better."

He predicted that Sarasota and Manatee will burn off excess inventory this year, and that sales will improve in 2008 and 2009.

I agree with Hank Fishkind. There will probably be some segments of the market where prices will decline because of a high concentration of investors.

Properties that show well, are marketed well and priced well stand a good chance of selling. With more homes selling in this market it provides a clearer picture of values. However, many sellers still tend to ignore the lower sales prices. It takes time for sellers to accept the whole process of a market correction. Home prices in the Sarasota have been declining for almost 2 years. It looks like we are heading into a flat market now.

I am putting money where my mouth is as I am closing on a new home on Monday.