How do the 2006 Sarasota real estate sales compare to previous years?
Here are the 2006 sales compared to sales in previous years. I searched the MLS database for sold properties in Sarasota, Nokomis, Osprey, Casey Key, Lido Key, Longboat Key, Bird Key, Siesta Key and Lakewood Ranch.
Properties sold - January 1 to July 8th, 2006:
1,601 single family homes
1,056 condominiums
Properties sold - January 1 to July 8th, 2005:
2,836 single family homes
1,813 condominiums
Properties sold - January 1 to July 8th, 2004:
3,217 single family homes
1,905 condominiums
Properties sold - January 1 to July 8th, 2003:
2,646 single family homes
1,532 condominiums
Properties sold - January 1 to July 8th, 2002:
2,435 single family homes
1,286 condominiums
I think these numbers are typical for the slow period that follows a number of boom years. I see alot of buyers sitting on the fence waiting to see what is going to happen to the market. A few of them are jumping in and buying. I think more buyers will follow. At the same time it looks like more sellers are having realistic expectations about the market. In my humble opinion, if the worst is not behind us I think we are pretty close to it.
These statistics come from the Sarasota MLS database. There are obviously other transactions not reported here such as FSBO activity and the new home builders and condo developers who do not report sales in the MLS system (the majority of them do not report).
Properties sold - January 1 to July 8th, 2006:
1,601 single family homes
1,056 condominiums
Properties sold - January 1 to July 8th, 2005:
2,836 single family homes
1,813 condominiums
Properties sold - January 1 to July 8th, 2004:
3,217 single family homes
1,905 condominiums
Properties sold - January 1 to July 8th, 2003:
2,646 single family homes
1,532 condominiums
Properties sold - January 1 to July 8th, 2002:
2,435 single family homes
1,286 condominiums
I think these numbers are typical for the slow period that follows a number of boom years. I see alot of buyers sitting on the fence waiting to see what is going to happen to the market. A few of them are jumping in and buying. I think more buyers will follow. At the same time it looks like more sellers are having realistic expectations about the market. In my humble opinion, if the worst is not behind us I think we are pretty close to it.
These statistics come from the Sarasota MLS database. There are obviously other transactions not reported here such as FSBO activity and the new home builders and condo developers who do not report sales in the MLS system (the majority of them do not report).
posted by Marc Rasmussen at
6:24 AM
1 Comments:
"In my humble opinion, if the worst is not behind us I think we are pretty close to it."
There are many folks who hope that you're correct. But the direction of the RE market really hinges on where interest rates are heading. If the Fed is now done raising rates for this cycle, then your assessment could very well be correct.
However, if the Fed sees fit to continue raising rates, home selling prices will continue to decline.
One of the things that plays prominently into the calculation of the CPI is rental costs. In fact, rent costs make up 40% of the calculation for the CPI. The Fed uses the CPI report as a significant guide for setting interest rates.
Rents are rising pretty swiftly lately in Florida for various reasons but mainly due to an increase in property taxes, insurance, borrowing costs, and the large loss of available rental apartments that were converted to condos.
So as landlords raise their rents to offset their increased costs, it significantly raises the CPI rate, which will in turn cause the Fed to continue to raise interest rates, IMO.
It's a maddening cycle of higher costs which simply get passed on to the consumer. I think we have further downside but I hope I'm wrong.
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