Florida’s Single-family Housing Market May Have Bottomed
The Bergstrom Center for Real Estate Studies, Warrington College of Business Administration at the University of Florida conducts surveys quarterly. UF’s Survey Research Center asked a series of questions of 318 industry executives, real estate lawyers, market analysts, title insurers, financial advisers, market research economists, real estate scholars and other experts in the field.
The most important finding from the January round of our Survey of Emerging Market Conditions is that residential development may have bottomed out. Given the scale of the residential development market, this would be good news for all real estate markets and for Florida in general. Meanwhile, most other real estate markets are stable, if not improving, giving a sense that almost all is nearly well in the land. An exception may be condominium markets and apartments for condo conversion that continue to struggle, though they, too, are perceived to be improved.
“If you’re thinking of buying a house, there’s probably not much to be gained by holding out at this point,” said Wayne Archer, director of UF’s Bergstrom Center for Real Estate Studies. “It doesn’t look like prices are going to fall anymore.”
The quarterly survey of experts in the real estate industry completed in January shows that the share of respondents observing a drop in single-family housing prices has dipped, while a growing number find prices staying even with inflation, Archer said.“We see that as a benchmark,” he said.
“When prices maintain the same level as inflation, then we’re probably in some kind of equilibrium. It indicates the market is stabilizing.”
The exception is condominiums, which are overbuilt and prone to speculative and naïve investors, he said.
Source: Bergstrom Center for Real Estate Studies - Warrington College of Business & Newswise
Sellers , Realtors and everyone else involved in the real estate industry obviously welcome this good news. It is great to see it come from a reliable source - Warrington College of Business at the University of Florida. The survey had 318 participating real estate professionals, with an increasingly broad coverage of thirteen urban regions in the state and fifteen property types.
The Sarasota real estate market went from one extreme to another in a short period of time. We had an extreme sellers market and quickly went to an extreme buyers market. Neither condition can last forever. The fundamentals are still pretty good and with property insurance and tax relief on the way they will get even better.
The most important finding from the January round of our Survey of Emerging Market Conditions is that residential development may have bottomed out. Given the scale of the residential development market, this would be good news for all real estate markets and for Florida in general. Meanwhile, most other real estate markets are stable, if not improving, giving a sense that almost all is nearly well in the land. An exception may be condominium markets and apartments for condo conversion that continue to struggle, though they, too, are perceived to be improved.
“If you’re thinking of buying a house, there’s probably not much to be gained by holding out at this point,” said Wayne Archer, director of UF’s Bergstrom Center for Real Estate Studies. “It doesn’t look like prices are going to fall anymore.”
The quarterly survey of experts in the real estate industry completed in January shows that the share of respondents observing a drop in single-family housing prices has dipped, while a growing number find prices staying even with inflation, Archer said.“We see that as a benchmark,” he said.
“When prices maintain the same level as inflation, then we’re probably in some kind of equilibrium. It indicates the market is stabilizing.”
The exception is condominiums, which are overbuilt and prone to speculative and naïve investors, he said.
Source: Bergstrom Center for Real Estate Studies - Warrington College of Business & Newswise
Sellers , Realtors and everyone else involved in the real estate industry obviously welcome this good news. It is great to see it come from a reliable source - Warrington College of Business at the University of Florida. The survey had 318 participating real estate professionals, with an increasingly broad coverage of thirteen urban regions in the state and fifteen property types.
The Sarasota real estate market went from one extreme to another in a short period of time. We had an extreme sellers market and quickly went to an extreme buyers market. Neither condition can last forever. The fundamentals are still pretty good and with property insurance and tax relief on the way they will get even better.
Labels: Florida real estate
posted by Marc Rasmussen at
6:52 AM
4 Comments:
“If you’re thinking of buying a house, there’s probably not much to be gained by holding out at this point,” said Wayne Archer, director of UF’s Bergstrom Center for Real Estate Studies. “It doesn’t look like prices are going to fall anymore.”
What an irresponsible thing for this guy to say. Where is he getting his data ?
The subprime lenders are being taken out back and shot which can only mean more homes on the market in the next 6 months, which clearly supports lower prices for real estate.
Anyone who can look at the situation objectively can see that the situation has not improved to the point where you can say with confidence that RE prices won't go lower.
It's utter stupidity, IMO.
The quarterly survey, conducted by the Bergstrom Center for Real Estate Studies, Warrington College of Business Administration, University of Florida, is in its sixth fielding. Participation increased almost 75 percent in the January round, up to 318 participating real estate professionals, with an increasingly broad coverage of thirteen urban regions in the state and fifteen property types.
Hank Fishkind, Ph.D, Fishkind & Associates, Inc., Lew Goodkin, Goodkin Consulting and Dave Denslow, Ph.D, UF Dept. of Economics were surveyed.
I am somewhat glad that my wife and I did not buy a condo during the frenzy of 2005. We came down and looked around a little bit. I guess we would be upside down right now. On one hand we would have bought at the high, on the other hand we would have really enjoyed using it the last couple of years. We love it down there and plan to purchase a getaway condo on Siesta Key beach within the next 6 months. You all are very lucky down there to not have to deal with the dreary and overcast weather day after day after day. Be thankful.
Certain areas may still see a decline however, we have now seen a stabilization of an otherwise too good to be true situation with unrealistic returns. The current mess is not shocking to anyone with any sense. The shocking thing now is the paranoia that keeps people from buying now. Rates are good, inventory is good and finally Joe lunchbox can actually afford a home without utilizing some of those none of your business loans that were so prevalent not so long ago. Subprime lenders that are getting shot out back are for the most part those who paticipated in fantasy mortgages and were far to greedy and lazy to assist their customers with a loan that was in their best interest.. Subprime loans exist to this day...Wamu for one will do what most would determine to be a subprime loan down to a 520 credit. They will not give this loan to a none of your business minded customer, they will not provide the 100 percent ltv with extensive prepays on short term adjustables...but they will work with those who have credit issues with a realistic loan that will enable them to either buy or keep their current home...let us all keep in mind that GREED was large in part responsible for the mess we are in and that although we have many casualties, we will emerge from this and live to make the same mistakes again.
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