What is Selling?
I was getting a haircut the other day when I overhead the guy next to me talking about real estate. This guy was telling his stylist that only the low end of the market was selling. It turned out that this guy was not a Realtor so I'm guessing he heard this information from one.
Let's see what is selling. Below are all of the sales of single family homes and condos by price range for the first quarter of 2008.
There were 1,293 total sales of homes and condos in the first quarter of 2008.
$3 million and up - 10 units - .7%
$1,000,000 - $2,999,999 - 86 units - 6.6%
$500,000 - $999,999 - 184 units - 14.3%
$300,000 - $499,999 - 293 units - 22.7%
0 - $299,999 - 720 units - 55.7%
Since I just woke up from a very refreshing nap I am going to the Sarasota MLS and get these same stats from 2002 to 2007.
2002
1,773 closed homes and condos in the first quarter of 2002
$3 million and up - 9 units - .6%
$1,000,000 - $2,999,999 - 51 units - 2.9%
$500,000 - $999,999 - 117 units - 6.6%
$300,000 - $499,999 - 262 units - 14.8%
0 - $299,999 - 1,334 units - 75.2%
2003
2,012 closed homes and condos in the first quarter of 2003
$3 million and up - 6 units - .2%
$1,000,000 - $2,999,999 - 69 units - 3.4%
$500,000 - $999,999 - 214 units - 10.6%
$300,000 - $499,999 - 319 units - 15.8%
0 - $299,999 - 1,404 units - 69.7%
2004
2,557 closed homes and condos in the first quarter of 2004
$3 million and up - 10 units - .4%
$1,000,000 - $2,999,999 - 102 units - 3.9%
$500,000 - $999,999 - 335 units - 13.1%
$300,000 - $499,999 - 521 units - 20.3%
0 - $299,999 - 1,589 units - 62.1%
2005
2,612 closed homes and condos in the first quarter of 2005
$3 million and up - 19 units - .7%
$1,000,000 - $2,999,999 - 159 units - 6%
$500,000 - $999,999 - 494 units - 19%
$300,000 - $499,999 - 705 units - 27%
0 - $299,999 - 1,235 units - 47.3%
2006
1,687 closed homes and condos in the first quarter of 2006
$3 million and up - 13 units - .8%
$1,000,000 - $2,999,999 - 116 units - 6.8%
$500,000 - $999,999 - 405 units - 24%
$300,000 - $499,999 - 493 units - 29%
0 - $299,999 - 660 units - 39.4%
2007
1,722 closed homes and condos in the first quarter of 2007
$3 million and up - 24 units - 1.4%
$1,000,000 - $2,999,999 - 104 units - 6.1%
$500,000 - $999,999 - 359 units - 20.8%
$300,000 - $499,999 - 541 units - 31.4%
0 - $299,999 - 694 units - 40.3%
Low end of the market
The percentages are obviously going to change as the overall market prices move up and down. In the 2003 to 2006 time frame notice that the percentage of homes selling under $300k decreases as market prices moved up. Also notice that in 2002 about 75% of the units sold were under $300k.
Now as prices decline from 2006 to 2008 the number of properties under $300k increases.
Luxury Properties
Even though prices have declined from 2006 to 2008 the million and up market still constitutes 6%-8% of the market.
So what does all of this mean? I don't know but let me digest it. Right now, my family is waiting for me to take them to dinner.
What do you think?
Let's see what is selling. Below are all of the sales of single family homes and condos by price range for the first quarter of 2008.
There were 1,293 total sales of homes and condos in the first quarter of 2008.
$3 million and up - 10 units - .7%
$1,000,000 - $2,999,999 - 86 units - 6.6%
$500,000 - $999,999 - 184 units - 14.3%
$300,000 - $499,999 - 293 units - 22.7%
0 - $299,999 - 720 units - 55.7%
Since I just woke up from a very refreshing nap I am going to the Sarasota MLS and get these same stats from 2002 to 2007.
2002
1,773 closed homes and condos in the first quarter of 2002
$3 million and up - 9 units - .6%
$1,000,000 - $2,999,999 - 51 units - 2.9%
$500,000 - $999,999 - 117 units - 6.6%
$300,000 - $499,999 - 262 units - 14.8%
0 - $299,999 - 1,334 units - 75.2%
2003
2,012 closed homes and condos in the first quarter of 2003
$3 million and up - 6 units - .2%
$1,000,000 - $2,999,999 - 69 units - 3.4%
$500,000 - $999,999 - 214 units - 10.6%
$300,000 - $499,999 - 319 units - 15.8%
0 - $299,999 - 1,404 units - 69.7%
2004
2,557 closed homes and condos in the first quarter of 2004
$3 million and up - 10 units - .4%
$1,000,000 - $2,999,999 - 102 units - 3.9%
$500,000 - $999,999 - 335 units - 13.1%
$300,000 - $499,999 - 521 units - 20.3%
0 - $299,999 - 1,589 units - 62.1%
2005
2,612 closed homes and condos in the first quarter of 2005
$3 million and up - 19 units - .7%
$1,000,000 - $2,999,999 - 159 units - 6%
$500,000 - $999,999 - 494 units - 19%
$300,000 - $499,999 - 705 units - 27%
0 - $299,999 - 1,235 units - 47.3%
2006
1,687 closed homes and condos in the first quarter of 2006
$3 million and up - 13 units - .8%
$1,000,000 - $2,999,999 - 116 units - 6.8%
$500,000 - $999,999 - 405 units - 24%
$300,000 - $499,999 - 493 units - 29%
0 - $299,999 - 660 units - 39.4%
2007
1,722 closed homes and condos in the first quarter of 2007
$3 million and up - 24 units - 1.4%
$1,000,000 - $2,999,999 - 104 units - 6.1%
$500,000 - $999,999 - 359 units - 20.8%
$300,000 - $499,999 - 541 units - 31.4%
0 - $299,999 - 694 units - 40.3%
Low end of the market
The percentages are obviously going to change as the overall market prices move up and down. In the 2003 to 2006 time frame notice that the percentage of homes selling under $300k decreases as market prices moved up. Also notice that in 2002 about 75% of the units sold were under $300k.
Now as prices decline from 2006 to 2008 the number of properties under $300k increases.
Luxury Properties
Even though prices have declined from 2006 to 2008 the million and up market still constitutes 6%-8% of the market.
So what does all of this mean? I don't know but let me digest it. Right now, my family is waiting for me to take them to dinner.
What do you think?
Labels: Just sold, Luxury Sarasota real estate, Sarasota real estate news
posted by Marc Rasmussen at
3:29 PM
2 Comments:
Marc said: "So what does all of this mean?
These are interesting statistics for comparison, and while I'm not sure if I'm qualified to analyze this data, I'll try nonetheless.
These are random thoughts and just my opinions ...
1) The number of units sold above the $3M mark took a spike upward in '05 through '07 when some of the "smart" money realized that RE prices were extended from a historical standpoint and opted to cash out. It's interesting that in '07 there were 24 units sold in this price range - maybe partial capitulation by some to sell unwanted high priced property after a final realization that the market had indeed topped in '05, and that it was time to unload.
2) As the market continues to correct, I would expect to see the number of transactions in the $299K and below range rise, quite possibly back to the numbers shown in '02. Many homes that were previously priced in the 300s are now selling in the mid to low 200s - and that trend will continue.
3) The total number of units in Q1 of '07 actually rose to 1722 from the '06 mark of 1677 as some probably thought that the worst was over and they perceived that prices were "cheap".
Now look at the Q1 numbers for '08 - all the way down to 1293 units. That's a pretty dramatic decline YOY. The tightness in the lending market and the squeeze on credit has really hurt the market. As the markets continue to deal with this symptom, I'd look for even weaker numbers for the remainder of this year and well into '09.
4) Until the government and markets come up with some creative ways to help those who are upside down financially, but still want to stay in their homes (or for investors who still wish to keep their homes long term), then we're going to see continued weakness and lower prices.
You cannot make it a disincentive to continue making mortgage, tax, and insurance payments, and then wonder why people are opting for foreclosure. The RE market not only started declining in the latter half of '05 and early '06, it absolutely fell off a cliff.
It's time for our country's leaders to step up and and produce MEANINGFUL legislation to help those who need it. I'm as big of a believer in free markets as anyone; but desperate times call for drastic measures. This is one of those times.
ToddinFL
I knew Todd would chime in. Much appreciated.
By the way, I am having a new blog built. It will be ready in a few weeks.
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