Local market isn't the only region in Florida with falling home prices

Here is an article from the Sarasota Herald Tribune about falling home prices in Sarasota and around Florida.

Here are some article highlights:
Declines occurred in 11 of the state's 20 largest real estate markets, though the two local markets had the dubious distinction of showing the largest drop, figures released this week by the Florida Association of Realtors showed.

The $290,000 median in Sarasota-Venice-Englewood was the first drop below $300,000 since February 2005.

Sarasota-Bradenton's median sales price of $290,000 might have shown a 16 percent decline during September when compared with the same time last year, but it still remained the fifth most expensive market in the state.

The more expensive markets were Fort Lauderdale ($370,300), Miami ($371,100), Naples ($446,900) and West Palm Beach-Boca Raton ($365,500).

As a Sarasota Realtor it is a positive sign to see the Sarasota median home price below $300k while Ft. Lauderdale, Miami, Naples and West Palm Beach medians much higher. Those cities offer some great qualities but I don't think they are any nicer than Sarasota. What do you think?

Builders eager to sell new homes

Sales pick up while analysts expect further price drops nationwide

WASHINGTON -- After offering incentives such as fancy kitchen upgrades and free swimming pools to move a glut of unsold houses, builders finally decided they needed to get serious about cutting prices.

The result was the biggest decline in median new house prices in 35 years.

Read the rest of the article

This decline in median new house price comes to no surprise to me. Even if builders have deep pockets they can't sit on their inventory like a regular home seller can. In a slow real estate market they have to adjust prices to match demand. If the demand is high they will raise prices as seen in the 2004 and 2005 market. If the demand is low they will drop prices to move homes. Many of the sellers of existing homes are in a situation where they really don't have to sell. They have the attitude, "If it sells - great. If not - I will just stay put." Home builders can't really do that. They eventually need to sell their inventory.

Realtors like Sarasota data

Here is an article from the Sarasota Herald Tribune about some Sarasota real estate sales data. Read the entire article here. The Sarasota Board of Realtors have released some sales data that seperates Sarasota from Venice and Bradenton home sales. "On a stand-alone basis, Sarasota's results are better than its immediate neighbors, and that's the point of the group's analysis", said Kathy Roberts, chief executive of the Sarasota Association of Realtors. Sarasota, as a wealthier community, seems to have weathered the market weakness better than less affluent communities.

Here are some interesting statistics that the group released:
Sales during the first nine months of 2002 were 6,202. That jumped to 8,729 in the boom year of 2004, and then leveled off to 8,460 sales for the same period last year.

Despite the Realtors' contention, though, 2006 is still slower so far even than 2002 with 5,158 total home and condominium sales, a 16.8 percent decline from that year.

Downtown Sarasota Real Estate

Are you interested in what is going on with Downtown Sarasota Sarasota Real Estate? I created a blog to keep people up to date on what is going on. Visit my Downtown Sarasota blog as I will post their as often as I can.

What is your favorite Sarasota neighborhood?

Is their a neighborhood in Sarasota that you would like to live in? Sarasota has a lot of great neighborhoods to suit anyone's tastes. Do you want that waterfront home in San Remo Estates, a starter home in Gulf Gate and South Gate, a family oriented new community like The Enclave, or some acreage in Foxfire? Sarasota can offer just about anything you desire. I built a collection of popular neighborhood pages that shows what is currently for sale. Leave me a comment or contact me if you want me to make a page about your favorite neighborhood.

Downtown Sarasota Condos
West of the Trail
Amberlea
Colonial Oaks
Covington Place
Deerfield
Emerald Gardens
Enclave
Forest Lakes
Foxfire
Foxfire West
Gator Creek Estates
Gulf Gate
Gulf Gate Woods
Hammocks
Hidden Oaks
Lakes Estates
Laurel Lakes
Nottingham
Oakleaf
Old Forest Lakes
Palmer Glen
Parkstone
Phillippi Gardens
Preserve at Heron Lake
South Gate
Sherwood Forest
The Landings
Woodland Park

Expert sees no imminent housing bust or crash

Here are some positive comments about the real estate market. Read the entire article here.

Here are some highlights from the article:

Donald L. Kohn, the Federal Reserve's vice chairman, sees no imminent bust or crash in housing at all. It is a "correction" that's under way -- a cyclical rebalancing of a marketplace that got too hot for too long in some parts of the country, and is now heading back toward more "normal" conditions, where prices are more in line with what consumers can afford.

"The reported declines in house prices in a number of areas should help to facilitate the rebalancing of supply and demand in those markets," said Kohn. Not all home sellers have fully grasped the altered realities in their own local markets -- that they've got to reduce their asking prices if they truly want to sell -- so the process is still unfolding. Re-priced houses, in turn, should stimulate greater numbers of potential buyers to get off the sidelines and make offers.

Doug Duncan, chief economist of the Mortgage Bankers Association, points out that national housing sales numbers are merely rolling back to 2003 levels -- "and that was a record year." Serious sellers and buyers shouldn't be misled by predictions of imminent crashes, said Duncan. Not only do the doom reports ignore the positives out there in the marketplace -- mortgage rates in particular -- but "the rhetoric is just way overwrought."

October Inventory of Sarasota Homes & Condos

Here is another snapshot of inventory levels in Sarasota. Not a dramatic change either way. I suspected inventories would go up a little since September was a pretty slow month for real estate and many other businesses in Sarasota. I will go out on a limb and say that October will be similar to September in terms of real estate activity and November will be more active. I am seeing more price adjustments from the sellers. It seems they have accepted the fact that prices have dropped and that they will not be able to get the same amount of money their neighbor got a year ago. I also see some of the buyers on the fence getting a little tired of waiting.

October 11th
4,445 single family homes for sale
3,147 condominiums for sale

September 24th
4,458 single family homes for sale
3,078 condominiums for sale

September 9th
4,433 single family homes for sale
3,002 condominiums for sale

August 17th
4,450 single family homes for sale
3,051 condominiums for sale

July 22nd
4,486 single family homes for sale
3,062 condominiums for sale

I searched Sarasota, Lakewood Ranch, Lido Key, Longboat Key, Siesta Key, Bird Key, Casey Key, Nokomis and Osprey for these numbers. MLS data is believed to be accurate but not guaranteed.

Moody's expect Sarasota real estate prices will drop

A report by Moody's Economy.com, a private research firm, suggests that Sarasota real estate prices are expected to drop.

The research firm places the drop at 14 percent during a period running from the last quarter of 2005 to the third quarter of 2007.

Wachovia Corp. economist Mark Vitner thinks the firm is going overboard when it calls the Southwest Florida experience a "collapse."

"I would not call this a collapse, because in their worst-case scenario, we are not even losing a year's appreciation, and it's over an 18-month period," he said.

Raul Elizalde, a former Wall Street equity and bond researcher says, "They are not the best forecasters I have ever seen. When I was in research, they were always just lagging. They were totally late."

Moody's economist Brian Carey acknowledged that their predictions do not include the wealth and buying power of Florida's retirees. "We have no input for retirees. We only know the incomes of working people," said Carey.

In the majority of the markets that Moody's studied, lowering prices were characterized as "market corrections." But in those where prices were predicted to tumble more than 10 percent, the decline was characterized as a crash.

Vitner, the Wachovia economist says "I think we are likely to see prices fall in markets that have historically been relatively inexpensive markets, such as Fort Myers, Cape Coral, Port Charlotte and Bradenton."

Sarasota and Naples, which have always been expensive, are not as overpriced in Vitner's estimation.

Vitner has been on top of the potential for pricing drops for more than a year. In June 2005, he wrote "once demand cools, as it invariably will, many of the markets that are currently seeing the largest gains in home prices are the very markets that will most likely see outright declines."
Read the entire article.

Lakewood Ranch to add 8,000 more homes

Despite a soft real estate market, Lakewood Ranch pitches two huge developments north of S.R. 70.

EAST MANATEE – Schroeder-Manatee Ranch is looking past the current soft housing market and proposing two massive developments that could bring more than 8,000 new homes to Lakewood Ranch.

Read the rest of the article.

Here are some article highlights:
The 8,100 new homes would add to the roughly 6,000 already built in Lakewood Ranch, and were part of the Ranch's original master plan that extends over 30 years and could lead to development of 7,000 acres.

Preliminary construction is expected to start some time next year; full build-out isn't expected until 2019.

Officials with SMR, the developer of Lakewood Ranch, are undeterred by the suddenly squishy local housing market or the uncertain future of the arena.

"We don't see that people are going to stop moving here," said Lakewood Ranch spokeswoman Sondra Guffey. "There's no research, no studies saying people aren't going to keep coming to Florida."

This would more than double the size of Lakewood Ranch. Obviously, there are plenty of homes currently for sale in Lakewood Ranch so in the short term adding more doesn't sound like a great idea. However, they are looking farther out in time to accomodate population growth of Florida. They don't expect completion until 2019.

If you are looking to buy or sell a home in Lakewood Ranch give me a call 941-308-6766.

Census Bureau - Florida No. 19 for Home Prices

According to the Census Bureau Manatee and Sarasota county housing costs remained close to the national median. Read the entire article here.

Here are some article highlights:
"The median amount that homeowners with a mortgage paid out each month nationwide was $1,295 in 2005. The median in Manatee was $20 lower at $1,275. Sarasota County was right at the national median price."

Highest median value of owner-occupied housing
Geographic area Median
1. California 477,700
2. Hawaii 453,600
3. District of Columbia 384,400
4. Massachusetts 361,500
5. New Jersey 333,900
6. Nevada 283,400
7. Rhode Island 281,300
8. Maryland 280, 200
9. Connecticut 271,500
10. New Hampshire 240,100
19. Florida 189,500
- Manatee County 209,400
- Sarasota County 235,200

Highest monthly median costs of owner-occupied housing with a mortgage
1. New Jersey $1,938
2. California 1,912
3. Massachusetts 1,781
4. Hawaii 1,763
5. Connecticut 1,718
6. District of Columbia 1,662
7. New York 1,652
8. Rhode Island 1,585
9. New Hampshire 1,566
10. Maryland 1,561
20. Florida 1,247
- Manatee County 1,275
- Sarasota County 1,295

Michigan Developer Bullish on Sarasota County

Here is some interesting information about what a large, well established Michigan developer thinks about the Sarasota county real estate market - Bullish Developer.

Burton-Katzman Development just paid $6.1 million for 12 acres off University Parkway and Honore Avenue. They are in talks to buy a brownfield site near Fruitville and Cattlemen roads. They also have announced plans to build a 10-story, mixed use building at 200 S. Washington Ave. in downtown Sarasota, and it has submitted a bid to build a hotel, condo, and office project downtown at Palm Avenue and Main Street.

Greg Burcz, Burton-Katzman's vice president of regional development, says demographic factors and major shifts in the engines of U.S. economic growth are what's driving Burton-Katzman's interest in Sarasota and Florida in general.

"By 2025, one-third of the U.S. population will live in three states -- Florida, Texas and California," Burcz said. "You have aging boomers attracted to the weather and other benefits, and you have a major shift from manufacturing to a service and high tech economy.

"Service and high tech companies want to be in warmer climates."

Sarasota Properties Sold in September 2006

I checked today to see how many homes and condos sold in September. I checked Sarasota, south Manatee county, Lakewood Ranch, Siesta Key, Lido Key, Longboat Key, Casey Key, Bird Key, Osprey and Nokomis.

192 homes sold in September
4400 homes currently for sale - Oct.1

87 condos sold in September
3,050 condos currently for sale - Oct 1

Keep in mind September is usually a slow month of the year.