Ft. Lauderdale/Miami Luxury Property Auction

In conjuction with other Sotheby's affiliates SKY Sothebys and Daniel Decaro conducted a portfolio luxury property auction in Ft. Lauderdale yesterday. The auction included properties in the Ft. Lauderdale and Miami area. Take a look at the two stunning properties below. It looks like the auction was successful in uncovering buyers for each of these properties.

One Isla Bahia - listed at $22,999,999

1235 East Lake Drive - listed at $14,999,000

Since the Ft. Lauderdale/Miami real estate markets are behind Sarasota in terms of a recovery the auction failed to get bids on many properties. According to the Florida Association of Realtors—the Sarasota/Manatee area once again outsold the Miami and Ft. Lauderdale markets, which continues the trend for every month of 2007 and 2008. It appears the home sellers in the Miami area need to be punched in the nose with a dose a reality.

Sarasota market recovery

SKY Sotheby's had an outstanding first quarter in terms of transactions. Many of our listings have gone under contract and we represented numerous buyers in the purchase of a property.

Sarasota is recovering faster than other Florida real estate markets. Too bad the national media paints the entire Florida real estate market with one broad stroke.

This market has become more affordable again. Back in 2005 if you wanted to get a condo on the beach side of the road on Longboat Key, Siesta Key or Lido Key you would pretty much have to pay at least $500,000. Now, there are options out there under $400,000. I know of a condo on Lido Key under $350,000.

In 2005 you would have to pay at least $400 a square foot for a Downtown Sarasota condo. Now there are options out there at $250 a square foot.

Want a house under $150,000? You have 659 to choose from in the Sarasota MLS.

Want a gulf front condo under $500k? You have 68 to choose from on Siesta, Lido and Longboat Keys.

Want a house built within the last 5 years in the Sarasota area under $350k? There are 175 of them to choose from.

Want a condo built within the last 5 years on the barrier islands less than $2 million? You have 43 to choose from.

We are affordable again. I see the light at the end of the tunnel. The Sarasota MLS shows 747 homes and 309 condominium under contract. The downward movement on price is turning to go sideways.

Florida home sales show some resilience

The Florida Association of Realtors issued their statistics for February home sales for Florida.

Sales in the Sarasota-Bradenton market dropped 10 percent when comparing February with the same month a year ago. The number of homes sold dropped from 672 to 608.

Only two Florida markets improved from February of 2007: Fort Pierce-Port St. Lucie was up 4 percent while Fort Myers-Cape Coral, a market that had the highest per-capita number of foreclosures nationally in February, was flat at 445 sales.

Prices fell 25 percent in Sarasota-Bradenton and 20 percent in Charlotte County-North Port. While sounding drastic, it was at roughly the price range that houses have held for months.

The $254,200 February median in Sarasota-Bradenton compares with $246,300 in January, $246,900 in December and $267,700 in November.

Here is an interesting statistic:
Sarasota-Bradenton's 608 sales were more than all but three of Florida's 20 largest markets: Jacksonville, Orlando and Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater.

According to FAR there were only 244 homes sales in Miami. For such a large market that is amazing. I sometimes wonder about the accuracy of these numbers.

Here is some valuable information from the real estate veteran Howard Rooks of Rooks-Morris brokerage firm. "I have seen many, many cases where properties are worth less two or three years later," he said. "But they've always been higher five years later. We are going into our third year of a tough market now."

Homes are becoming affordable again. The Sarasota MLS shows 645 homes for sale under $150,000. Someone can buy a beach front condo under $500,000 again. Want a winter condo getaway in a downtown Sarasota? You can get one under $400,000. Want a condo with gorgeous water views? I just saw one close in Condo on the Bay for $340,000.

International Exposure

Looking for some international exposure for your home? With the U.S. dollar so weak and our correcting real estate market we are getting a lot of interest from Canadians and Europeans. This is a fabulous time for them to buy.

I was perusing through my website statistics yesterday to see how many visitors I had from foreign countries. In the last 30 days my Sarasota real estate website had visitors from 99 different countries. I had a visitor from Togo who stayed on my site for 25 minutes. Togo is a country in West Africa (I had to look it up). Below are the number of visits for the top 10 countries:

• 2,516 Canada
• 838 United Kingdom
• 162 Germany
• 119 France
• 85 Denmark
• 78 Sweden
• 73 Japan
• 71 Netherlands
• 70 Czech Republic
• 55 Ireland

Contact me at 941-812-6272 if you need to sell your home and want extensive internet and international exposure.

Nobody is Buying in Florida

Untrue!

The Sarasota MLS shows that there are:

733 single family homes under contract
311 condominiums under contract

Contrarian: An investor who buys a category when most others are selling and sells when others are buying. A contrarian doesn’t chase what is hot, but is often buying a category that has recently underperformed.

If you need help buying or selling please contact me at 941-812-6272.

House Price 'Bubble' Now Deflated

According to a new study by SMR Research Corporation the housing "bubble" -- whose bursting triggered the current mortgage credit crisis -- has now fully deflated.

This sets the stage for a mild housing recovery, which SMR said would begin prior to year end 2008.

The recovery is likely to be gradual, with house prices merely firming up or increasing slightly, rather than returning to the strong growth they showed from 2002 to mid-2006, the firm said.

SMR specializes in mortgage and home equity loan industry research. An SMR study was among the first to declare (in 2002) that a housing price bubble existed, defined as prices rising faster than consumer incomes. In a 2004 study, SMR forecast that a "perfect storm" in credit quality would cause an explosion in foreclosures within two years.

"Our prior forecasts were accurate but widely disbelieved when issued," noted SMR President Stuart A. Feldstein. "We similarly expect a skeptical reaction now to a recovery forecast, which is not the common view. But the numbers are what they are."

The new recovery forecast was published within SMR's annual Spring study on mortgage industry trends and leading players: Giants of the Mortgage Industry, 2008. More than 230 pages this year, Giants has been in continuous publication since 1986.

A special section in the study used home price and consumer income data from several sources to show how the bubble grew from 2002 to 2006. The same data now show the bubble has evaporated at current mortgage interest rates after 18 months of rising incomes and falling home values.

"Homes are now affordable again," Feldstein said. "Consumer psychology is the biggest remaining hurdle to recovery."

Prospective home buyers, still hearing predictions that prices will fall further, keep waiting to buy, SMR noted. This becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy, as scant demand pushes home prices lower.

"The stage is set for recovery, but the play won't go on if no one buys a ticket," Feldstein said. "Consumers must believe prices have bottomed out, or nearly so, before they will buy in larger numbers."

SMR noted that home price depreciations always do come to an end eventually, as occurred over the last 20 years in California, New England, New York, and Hawaii. Falling mortgage interest rates could trigger the end of this one.

The recovery in housing will be tempered by three negatives, SMR said.

First, borrowers with low credit scores may be unable to participate. Second, existing home owners who owe more money than their homes are worth may find it difficult to move until prices firm up.

Third, there is another type of housing "bubble" that may still exist, SMR said. It is the difference between home purchase downpayments and household savings.

SMR cited IRS data showing a big increase over 10 recent years in the percentage of tax filers reporting zero taxable interest income, implying no available cash savings. It is more difficult and expensive today to get 100% home purchase financing, so most buyers must have some downpayment funds.

Still, even though these problems will make the housing recovery modest, they will not prevent it from coming, SMR said.

In its analysis of the house price/income bubble, SMR used gross household income data from the Census Bureau as well as per capita disposable incomes from the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis.

The firm used house price data reported separately by the Census Bureau on newly constructed homes and from the National Association of Realtors on existing homes.

In addition, SMR compared income trends to required average monthly mortgage payments under prevailing annual interest rates from 1990 through February, 2008. Results showed that gaps created from 2002 through 2006 are now closed.

SMR's annual Giants study also includes the firm's complete coverage of full-year 2007 mortgage originations and servicing data by lender and for the industry, plus new measures of loan delinquency, foreclosure, and other industry and company statistics.

Founded in 1984, SMR Research Corp. is the nation's largest provider of industry research studies on mortgage and home equity loan subjects.

February Sales

Here are some sales figures for February 2008 and February 2007. I pulled these numbers from the Sarasota MLS. The areas included in the totals are for Longboat Key, Siesta Key, Lido Key, Bird Key, Casey Key, Lakewood Ranch, Sarasota, Osprey and Nokomis. All other areas were exluded.

February 2007
Total single family homes transactions: 180
Total condo transactions: 215

February 2008
Total single family homes transactions: 170
Total condo transactions: 93

February 2007
Longboat Key homes: 5
Longboat Key condo: 14

February 2008
Longboat Key homes: 7
Longboat Key condo: 14

February 2007
Siesta Key homes: 7
Siesta Key condo: 11

February 2008
Siesta Key homes: 5
Siesta Key condo: 12

February 2007
Lido Key homes: 0
Lido Key condo: 1

February 2008
Lido Key homes: 1
Lido Key condo: 5

February 2007
Casey Key homes: 1

February 2008
Casey Key homes: 2

February 2007
Bird Key homes: 1

February 2008
Bird Key homes: 1

February 2007
Lakewood Ranch homes: 23
Lakewood Ranch condo: 12

February 2008
Lakewood Ranch homes: 31
Lakewood Ranch condo: 3

Pending Transactions - These are all of the properties in the areas mentioned above that are currently under contract and waiting to close.

Total single family homes: 421
Total condominiums: 225

Longboat Key homes: 9
Longboat Key condos: 38

Siesta Key homes: 18
Siesta Key condos: 41

Lido Key homes: 3
Lido Key condos: 2

Casey Key homes: 3

Bird Key homes: 4

Lakewood Ranch homes: 46
Lakewood Ranch condos: 10